Here’s What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market

Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

Carrie Hansen

Carrie loves people and numbers! Carrie has worked in financial services since she graduated from Iowa State with a degree in Finance. She enjoys connecting with new people and developing relationships to foster business and promoting other people. She is an active runner, golfer, enjoys reading, traveling, family, friends, meme sharing, comedy, anything Warren Buffett related and following the markets and investing. Carrie is happiest surrounded by family and dear friends including her boyfriend Mike and his two children most likely laughing or telling stories .

Carrie is also an adult living with Cystic Fibrosis – diagnosed when she was three months old. Cystic fibrosis is a progressive, genetic disease that causes persistent lung infections and limits the ability to breathe over time.

In people with CF, mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene cause the CFTR protein to become dysfunctional. When the protein is not working correctly, it’s unable to help move chloride — a component of salt — to the cell surface. Without the chloride to attract water to the cell surface, the mucus in various organs becomes thick and sticky. In the lungs, the mucus clogs the airways and traps germs, like bacteria, leading to infections, inflammation, respiratory failure, and other complications. For every loan I close with Clear Mortgage, I will be donating $200 to the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, Iowa Chapter. Reach out and apply now!